So here I am sitting at my desk with tons to do, swamped out of my mind and needing a mental break. In doing so, I venture into the blogosphere to try to find an article named “The Morning After” that excellently displayed the win probability of the night prior. Unfortunately, I come to find that the last one was done on July 31. So with all the credit in the world to DJF for the idea I’m about to rip off, as well as fangraphs for the amazing stats, I’m bringing it back to life. If you’re not familiar with these stats, I’d encourage you to look here http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-one-about-win-probability/ It’s a fair bit to read, but I really fell in love with this last year. So everyone, here goes nothing.
Blue Jays 9 Orioles 3
Raise of my Jack filled boot: Brett The Specs Cecil with a whopping 23.6%
My boot in yer arse: R.A. Dickey, on the complete opposite
end of the spectrum at -27% (yikes)
Saaaad Dickey :(
Lineup Contribution: 34.1%
Pitching Contribution: 15.8%
Highest Leverage AB: Brett Lawrie Homers off of Meek in the 8th (2.84) (All great men have mustaches)
Highest Leverage Opponent AB: Steve Clevenger strikes out
swinging (4.75!!!!)
Highest Impact AB: Edwin breaks the drought with a no doubter to CF (+28.4%) I know one happy camper:
Highest Impact Pitch: Bottom 7, Specs strikes out Adam Jones swinging (+12.2%)
Highest Impact AB: Edwin breaks the drought with a no doubter to CF (+28.4%) I know one happy camper:
Highest Impact Pitch: Bottom 7, Specs strikes out Adam Jones swinging (+12.2%)
pLI
|
WPA |
|
Jose Reyes
|
0.9
|
-0.112
|
Melky Cabrera
|
0.88
|
-0.014
|
Jose Bautista
|
0.84
|
0.083
|
Edwin Encarnacion
|
1.16
|
0.199
|
Juan Francisco
|
1.15
|
0.038
|
Brett Lawrie
|
1.53
|
0.154
|
Colby Rasmus
|
1.49
|
0.062
|
Josh Thole
|
0.89
|
0.069
|
Ryan Goins
|
1.09
|
-0.069
|
Jonothan Diaz
|
1.33
|
-0.069
|
0.341
|
||
R.A. Dickey
|
1.05
|
-0.27
|
Neil Wagner
|
2.01
|
0.079
|
Brett Cecil
|
3.76
|
0.236
|
Steve Delabar
|
1.91
|
0.11
|
Esmil Rogers
|
0.11
|
0.003
|
0.158
|
Quick notes:
SP Lines:
Dickey: 6+IP 6H 3ER 3BB 6K
Gonzalez: 5.2IP 4H 2ER 2BB 7K
Dickey pitched really well, although his pattern of getting worse every time the lineup turns around continued. This is to be expected among starters, but with an increasing batters average of .317 , it may be something to watch in the future. (Quicker hook please Gibby)
Cecil was unbelievable last night. His player leverage index represents amazingly what kind of pressure he was under (1.75 higher than any other player) and he delivered HUGE with back to back strikeouts.
Esmail came in to close things out after our boys blew it wide open, and was well, Esmail.
Bautista and Melky continue to roll leading the league in walks and hits, respectively. Joey Bats is the only player in the MLB to reach safely in every game this season.
Dickey: 6+IP 6H 3ER 3BB 6K
Gonzalez: 5.2IP 4H 2ER 2BB 7K
Dickey pitched really well, although his pattern of getting worse every time the lineup turns around continued. This is to be expected among starters, but with an increasing batters average of .317 , it may be something to watch in the future. (Quicker hook please Gibby)
Cecil was unbelievable last night. His player leverage index represents amazingly what kind of pressure he was under (1.75 higher than any other player) and he delivered HUGE with back to back strikeouts.
Esmail came in to close things out after our boys blew it wide open, and was well, Esmail.
Bautista and Melky continue to roll leading the league in walks and hits, respectively. Joey Bats is the only player in the MLB to reach safely in every game this season.
Colby stuck true to his being known for three true outcomes,
but stuck with 2 of the 3 tonight (2 walks and 2 K’s).
Goins still sucks, and was pinch hit for Diaz (3rd highest position player bWAR on the team) late.
Jays improve to 3-2 in those sexy whites, while personally, my Red Lawrie got it’s first W and sits at 1-2.
The 11-9 Jays continue the home stand tonight at 5:07 MST with Dusty Chops taking the mound against Tillman.
Goins still sucks, and was pinch hit for Diaz (3rd highest position player bWAR on the team) late.
Jays improve to 3-2 in those sexy whites, while personally, my Red Lawrie got it’s first W and sits at 1-2.
The 11-9 Jays continue the home stand tonight at 5:07 MST with Dusty Chops taking the mound against Tillman.
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